Month: June 2024

Did bachelor degree enrolments decline significantly between 2016 and 2022?

Andrew NortonLeave a comment

This is a post I started writing several months ago, before the Accord final report and other major higher education policy announcements pushed it aside. I have completed it as a companion to my census attainment post on data issues in higher education.

Late last year several media outlets, using data from the ABS Education and Work survey, reported declining bachelor degree enrolments. In November 2023, bachelor degree enrolments were said to be down 12 per cent between 2016 and 2022. Another newspaper rounded the drop to 13 per cent. In December 2023 bachelor degree enrolments were said to be at their lowest level since 2011.

This post explains why these media stories exaggerate enrolment decline. The most important reason is that Education and Work does not count offshore international students. But comparing Education and Work results with enrolment data shows that it typically undercounts onshore international students and overcounts domestic students, particularly those in bachelor degrees. It also has occasional rogue surveys that produce misleading comparison years.

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What’s new in the funding agreements, part 4: revised equity plan rules

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As discussed in a blog post last week, the revised 2024-25 Commonwealth-university funding agreements add new restrictions on early offers. The revised agreements also rewrite the rules on a novel feature of the original December 2023 2024-25 funding agreements. These rules cover a new policy to spend unused Commonwealth Grant Scheme allocations on activities set out in equity plans.

The May funding agreements improve on their December 2023 versions by potentially making the equity plan requirement optional. However a change to how the equity plan amounts are calculated reduces how much money universities could receive.

The revised funding agreements also include some minor funding increases.

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How much difference will stopping student visa applications from people on visitor visas make?

Andrew Norton2 Comments

The bad news for international education keeps coming. On Wednesday the government announced that onshore visitor visa holders would no longer be able to apply for a student visa. It also announced a 1 July 2024 implementation date for the ban on temporary graduate visa holders applying for a student visa. The temporary graduate visa policy was announced last December.

How big is the visitor visa change?

The government’s media release says that 36,000 onshore visitor visa holders applied for a student visa in the financial year to May 2024. However the number of visas granted will be much lower than that. As of the end of April 2024 13,733 primary applicant student visas had been granted to onshore visitor visa holders in 2023-24. Secondary visa holders – partners and children – take the number to 17,729.

These numbers are for all levels of education. Higher education primary applicants are about a quarter of the total for this time period. In 2023-24 up to April 3,332 higher student visas grants were made for primary applicants, with secondary applicants taking the total to 4,742.

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What’s new in the university funding agreements, part 3: new rules on early offers

Andrew Norton1 Comment

Earlier this year I wrote a couple of blog posts on the 2024 university-Commonwealth funding agreements signed late last year. Revised agreements were signed in May 2024. These agreements include new rules on early offers. This post argues that early offers rules should be legislated separately and not included as a condition of Commonwealth Grant Scheme funding.

Restrictions on school leaver early offers

As foreshadowed by the minister in February, university funding agreements now restrict school leaver early offers. The basic rules are 1) No offers to Year 11 students; 2) No offers to Year 12 students prior to September; and 3) Offers must be conditional on successful completion of a senior secondary certificate of education.

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How reliable are Census educational attainment numbers?

Andrew NortonLeave a comment

I am a big user of ABS data, including for calculating educational participation and attainment rates. Recently I have been using Census longitudinal data, which links records from a 5% sample of the Australian Census between different Census dates.

Due to respondent inattention to questions, or mistakes by family members answering for others, I would expect some inconsistent answers between censuses. But inconsistency rates for education-related questions are alarmingly high.

For the highest year of school education the ABS-reported inconsistency rate between 2016 and 2021 was 6.8%. For highest non-school qualification the inconsistency rate was 8.9% – meaning that a lower highest education qualification was reported in 2021 than 2016.

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