The bad news for international education keeps coming. On Wednesday the government announced that onshore visitor visa holders would no longer be able to apply for a student visa. It also announced a 1 July 2024 implementation date for the ban on temporary graduate visa holders applying for a student visa. The temporary graduate visa policy was announced last December.

How big is the visitor visa change?

The government’s media release says that 36,000 onshore visitor visa holders applied for a student visa in the financial year to May 2024. However the number of visas granted will be much lower than that. As of the end of April 2024 13,733 primary applicant student visas had been granted to onshore visitor visa holders in 2023-24. Secondary visa holders – partners and children – take the number to 17,729.

These numbers are for all levels of education. Higher education primary applicants are about a quarter of the total for this time period. In 2023-24 up to April 3,332 higher student visas grants were made for primary applicants, with secondary applicants taking the total to 4,742.

Trends in onshore visitor visa to student visa grants

To look at trends I adjusted the other financial years to the end of April to create a consistent time series – the absolute numbers for the earlier years were higher than shown. But whether we look at the absolute numbers, or the share of all visa grants in the second chart below, the visitor visa student market had been growing over time, except during the COVID period when few visitor visa holders were in the country. The more recent trend, however, was down – perhaps due to the greater use of ‘no further stay’ conditions on visitor visas mentioned in Wednesday’s announcement.

As expected from the visa numbers, higher education is less reliant on visitor visa applicants, but the post-COVID upward trend looks like it continues a trend that was interrupted by COVID.

Most successful visitor visa applicants enter the vocational education sector, making the visitor visa ban another blow to vocational international education.

Which countries are the visitor visa students from?

As expected, India and China are among the top few countries for converting visitor visas into student visas. But the Philippines, a growth market for international education, was the second largest source country in the post-border closure period. In 2023-24 to April it had the highest percentage of total student visa grants coming from people in Australia on a visitor visa, at 20.1% of the country total. Of the countries in the chart two others had more than 10% of student visas coming from this source, Taiwan (17.1%) and South Korea (13.7%).

Although overall student visa grants to onshore visitor visa holders are down in 2023-24 to April compared to 2022-23, three countries are on track to increase student visa grants from this source – Chile, Mongolia, and Vietnam.

Visa hopping?

What I can’t tell from this data is what share of these student visas are cases of ‘visa hopping’ – just trying to prolong stays in Australia – and what share are people coming to Australia on a visitor visa and then deciding to take a course. Migration rules aside, I can see sense in checking out future study destinations before making the expensive decision to become an international student.

The Department of Home Affairs publishes data on the next visa after student and temporary graduate visas. Before the COVID dip significant numbers of international students moved onto visitor visas. In the last full financial year before COVID, 2018-19, 46,591 international students changed to a visitor visa, along with 2,350 people whose temporary graduate visa had ended.

The numbers of former international students going onto visitor visas started trending up again as the borders reopened to tourists. The 1 July-31 December 2023 numbers (not shown in the chart) were more than 60% of the 2022-23 total, so total 2023-24 numbers will probably exceed 2022-23.

I can’t see from the published data what percentage of individuals in the chart below also appear in the post’s first chart and so fall into the category of ‘visa hopping’.

Conclusion

I have not previously given the visitor visa to student visa issue much thought, so my conclusions are provisional. For reasons outlined previously, I support reducing the ‘permanently temporary’ population. A long-term temporary visa to visitor visa to student visa chain has the basic characteristics of a permanently temporary migrant. There is a case for restricting it.

But a check out Australia as a study destination on a visitor visa to student visa chain, without first returning home, seems more like sensible caution than a problem People on visitor visas can study for up to three months while in Australia, so the migration system supports this try-before-you-buy approach. Forcing prospective international students to go home first and then apply offshore adds unnecessary costs.

I understand the need to moderate international student numbers. But the current government approach, which is to choke every demand and supply channel it can, risks doing the international education industry, and the people who would like to study in Australia, more than harm than necessary to achieve the policy goal.