How much is the 2020 higher education assistance package worth?

Update 28/04/20: It now seems likely that there won’t be additional higher education places beyond 1000 places for non-university higher education providers. This would revise down the potential value of the package by about $100 million, to around $500 million – but noting the substantial uncertainty in the original post.

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In today’s media, there are some very large estimates of likely international student fee losses. The federal government is not compensating universities directly for falling international student revenues, but as outlined in my blog post on Wednesday they have announced measures focused on domestic students.

Calculating the financial impact of these measures is not easy. We don’t know what impact COVID-19 has had on domestic student numbers, although some universities had soft demand before COVID-19 disrupted on-campus classes. The University of Sydney has reported that its domestic numbers are down nearly 5 per cent on expectations, but that could be due to a tough NSW market.

Many universities have delayed the census date at which Commonwealth and student contributions are triggered, and so they won’t know for sure what their first semester situation is until that day has been reached. Nor do we know what will happen in later semesters. It may depend on whether campuses can re-open. Read More »