The latest ATO taxation statistics come out today, giving us some new information on HELP.

Although growth in higher education student numbers moderated in 2015, VET FEE-HELP was still out of control in the period covered until mid-2016, contributing to a substantial increase in total debtor numbers. They grew by nearly half a million (a 24% increase) between 30 June 2014 and 30 June 2016. With big policy changes in vocational education taking effect in 2016 and 2017, along with continued moderate growth in higher education numbers, the rate of growth should slow substantially in the year to 30 June 2017.

On current policy settings, however, the number of debtors repaying is not likely to accelerate rapidly. Only 22 per cent made a repayment in 2013-14 and the number is likely to to be lower still in 2014-15 (there is a 2014-15 number in the chart, but these have a history of significant upward revision due to late tax returns, so it is too early to say exactly what proportion made a repayment).

The 2014-15 repaying share is likely to be lower because of the number of people who are still students, the high initial repayment threshold of nearly $55,000 a year is delaying repayment for recent graduates, and a large proportion of VET FEE-HELP borrowers are unlikely to earn enough to repay.

There is speculation that the initial threshold for repayment will be reduced in the Budget. These numbers explain why the idea needs considering.