In this morning’s papers, there is controversy over the declining proportion of Victoria universities publishing ‘clearly-in’ ATARs – the ATAR above which all applicants are admitted. In Victoria, the share of courses with a clearly-in ATAR has declined from 40% last year to 25% this year.

Some universities say that ATARs, and especially ATAR cut-offs, can be misleading. ATARs are not necessarily the basis of admission or the only basis. As the chart below shows, in the lower ATARs a significant minority of recent school leavers are admitted to university on some basis other than their secondary education. More will be admitted based on secondary education but without relying on ATAR.

The overall admission process is larger and more complex than for recent year 12 students. For 2014 commencing undergraduate students at public universities, people who had completed school the previous year were around two-thirds of those with ATARs in the enrolment data. The remainder were people who had finished school in earlier years, and people admitted on other grounds, the largest of which were prior vocational education, prior higher education, and mature age entry.

As can be seen in the chart below, this pushes down the share of people admitted based on secondary education, especially in the lower ATAR groups. Only just over a quarter of people with ATARs below 50 were admitted based on their secondary education. The biggest single category was vocational education (31% of admissions). About half of people with ATARs who were admitted based on vocational education had ATARs below 60, confirming it as a pathway into higher education for people who did not feel ready for higher education, or could not get into higher education with their school results alone.

I’ve consistently opposed minimum ATARs as too blunt a tool for regulating admissions. But the universities have conflicts of interest in this area. They want to fill all their places and avoid any reputational issues from admitting low-ATAR students. Given what we know about the link between low ATAR and non-completion, going to university may not be the best option for low-ATAR students (and indeed most don’t go to university).

And while the published ATAR cut-offs can be misleading, information on the range of ATARs that previously resulted in offers or enrolments would be helpful. They would give prospective students a guide to whether they are likely to be admitted, and to the academic strength of their potential fellow students.