After some long delays, the 2014 applications report is finally out. It shows that for the 2014 academic year the number of applicants (as opposed to applications) went down, although only by 300. Offers continued to increase, so that now only 14 per cent of applicants don’t get an offer, compared to 20 per cent in 2010. The first half 2014 enrolment data shows that these offers translated into enrolment increases.
These results won’t do much to dissuade the people arguing that admission requirements have dropped too much. In 2010, fewer that 2,000 offers were made to applicants with ATARs below 50. In 2014, more than 7,000 such offers were made. Only half of these offers were accepted. Evidence in the demand driven review suggested that a reasonable number of the people who do accept don’t make it to the HELP census date (about a month in; if they drop out before they do not incur a debt and are not counted in enrolment statistics). And only a bit over half who make it to the first census date are likely to complete, if earlier low-ATAR cohorts are a guide.
Although enrolments continue to grow, a softening of demand is sensible given the weak graduate employment market.