Late last year the mainstream media picked up on the graduate un/under-employment story. At Grattan we have been doing a bit more work to see what is going on.
One of the things we wanted to look at whether the poor employment outcomes were driven by more graduates, as the 2009 and onwards enrolment boom students finish their courses, or a declining labour market, or both.
We have published completions data, but there is no published time series of the number of recent graduates with jobs. What we’ve done is taken the proportion of recent graduates with full-time jobs in the Graduate Destination Survey as a share of the completions number. To the extent that the GDS is an imperfect sample our numbers are likely to be a little wrong, but I doubt this will affect the trend.
As can be seen in the slide below, both supply and demand factors are affecting outcomes. The graduate labour market peaked in 2007, when nearly 61,000 new bachelor graduates found (or already had) full-time jobs. In 2013 and 2014, just over 52,000 new bachelor graduates had full time jobs about four months after completing their degrees.
There seem to be two shocks to the employment market. The first was the onset of the global financial crisis, with was felt most strongly for the 2008 completing students, with a decline of 7 per cent in the number of graduate jobs on the previous year. Perhaps surprisingly, there was a slightly bigger shock in 2013, with a 7.6 per cent decline on the number of jobs in 2012. One reason it was worse in 2013 is that big health fields which had been little affected by the 2009 downturn declined significantly. This is consistent with fewer health occupations appearing on the skills shortage list (p. 68).
While graduate employment opportunities have trended down, the number of domestic bachelor degree completions has trended up, by 17 per cent between 2008 and 2014. Given there are still some big student cohorts enrolled in our universities, the number of completions will only increase in the next few years. Unfortunately, we cannot have the same confidence about full-time jobs for recent graduates.