The science bubble finally shows signs of deflating

Since 2009, demand for science courses has been growing strongly. This is leading to a serious labour market over-supply, and so I believe there needs to be a correction. Unfortunately the information flows to prospective students for science contain a lot of misleading signals from STEM boosters, who persist in high-profile, but in my view incorrect, claims that this area of education needs encouragement.

The February 2015 applications statistics show some tentative signs that the market is adjusting to science realities. Through the tertiary admissions centres, there has been a 3 per cent decline in science applications. In reality, it is probably a larger drop than this, as I understand that a course reclassification that led to a big drop in environmental studies applications should have boosted science. Against this trend, however, there has been a 5 per cent increase in direct applications for science courses (for non-Year 12 applicants, there is a trend towards applying directly rather than through tertiary admission centres).

Feb demand

The biggest drop in demand if we don’t consider the environmental studies reclassification has been for education courses, down 9 per cent through tertiary admissions centres. This is probably because with a clear occupational outcome in teaching negative labour market information is transmitted much more effectively. Although this is a sensible adjustment, Kim Carr will still be on the warpath about nearly 900 education course offers to applicants with ATARs below 50.

Total applicants (as opposed to applications) are up 1 per on 2014, indicating a market that is essentially stable.

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